王垣鑫:背离引发日内反弹,后市关注5日线压力
关键词:走势分析、现货黄金
现货黄金价格在周初时间里,基本维持1900上方震荡,但周三出现大幅回落走势,价格直接跌破1900、1890、1870关口。虽然昨日早间价格出现反弹,但1885一线位置压力效果比较明显,价格两度上攻不能突破后选择回落,金价直接跌破前低1870一线,将低点刷新至1860一线位置。截至到现在为止,价格仍在低位区间震荡,整体表现较为弱势。
欧央行利率维稳
昨日,欧洲央行决定暂时按兵不动,将应对新冠疫情的紧急购债计划维持在1.35万亿欧元不变。欧洲央行行长拉加德表示,因新冠疫情与再度实施封锁可能导致经济二次衰退,“几乎无疑”会在12月就新的货币刺激方案达成共识。
拉加德在新闻发布会上的这番表示,彰显出疫情反弹使该地区经济复苏面临脱轨威胁。此前欧洲央行决定暂时维持刺激措施不变。欧元区经济复苏势头减弱的速度快于预期,拉加德称同意有必要采取行动,并且将在下次管理委员会会议上重新调整工具。
背离或带来日内反弹机会
尽管目前现货黄金价格走势仍保持弱势,但1h级别中可以看到,macd指标未能跟随价格进行破低,出现了底背离的迹象。同时,日线kdj指标三线走低,也带来了回调的需求。不过,这种小级别的背离加上大级别的kdj调整,或许并不会给整个回落趋势带来很大的改变。因为目前小级别的下跌形态依然保存良好,所以更多的可能只会出现日内的反弹,重点仍需留意上方日线级别ma5均线的压力。
另外,目前日线级别的均线簇已经排好顺序,并且有向下发散的迹象,下方需要重点关注1850一线前低支撑,一旦跌破配合均线的空头排列,后市下跌空间可能就会直接打开,届时不排除价格直接回踩1800整数关口的可能。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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