黄金牛市涨幅明显,突破千八只是时间问题
关键词:黄金牛市涨幅明显
和以往几波黄金牛市相比,本轮牛市黄金涨幅只有69%,而大部分黄金牛市涨幅在400%以上,但在全球大型刺激计划、负利率政策、通缩和滞涨的背景下,黄金未来都会走出新的高度。
这导致货币贬值。迄今为止,全球对疫情的财政政策响应为9万亿美元,并且有可能进一步攀升。这支持了像黄金这样的可储值的资产。
在世界范围内,央行在降低利率的同时,渴望收益的投资者呼吁有合理收益的债券交易。这推高了债券价格,压低了债券收益率。
低利率阻碍了投资者投资政府债券,并迫使他们去别处寻找避险资产,如黄金。
可以发现欧洲政府的债券收益率基本为负。渴望获得收益的投资者与央行的负利率政策共同推动了大多数政府债券收益率进入负数区域。其他发达国家的债券收益率也紧随其后。
生产力和GDP疲软,高失业率和初级商品(食品,水,住房)成本高昂正使得世界各地的投资者购买作为价值存储的安全港资产黄金。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计经济将陷入严重衰退,复苏速度将放缓。IMF在6月30日的最新评论中将其对全球GDP的预期下调至-4.9%。
目前尚没有迹象显示全球央行将放慢印钞的步伐,也没有看到任何发达国家的央行具备加息的能力。货币贬值为黄金提供了坚实的长期论据。
比如近几十年来,石油与天然气之比一直固定为6:1,因为定价是按能源当量确定的。但是美国页岩油革命改变了这一点,自从2007那边页岩气产量激增以来,这一比例已经发生了改变。
白银是一种工业金属,同时兼具部分避险属性。同时白银是伴生矿,即开采其他金属过程中的副产品,这也是其主要的来源,初级银矿的产量非常少。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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