欧元后市可能出现大幅上涨，欧盟解体风险降低
关键词：欧盟解体风险降低
6月23日，欧元兑美元出现震荡上行趋势，欧洲经济逐步恢复常态，勇士欧洲央行、德国和委员会不断宣布新的经济刺激政策，让欧元区的发展有了明显的变化。不过疫情的二次爆发可能会让投资者保持一定的谨慎，同时欧盟解体的风险有所降低。
欧元区6月Markit制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)初值46.9，创4个月新高，预期45，前值39.4。欧元区经济的历史性衰退本月再次缓解，因大量企业被迫关闭，以遏制新冠疫情的蔓延，这些企业重新开业，这表明欧元区经济有望实现V型复苏，数据公布后欧元进一步上涨。周一(6月22日)公布的欧盟6月消费者信心指数也好于预期。
目前来看，新冠疫情及其对经济的影响依然存在高度不确定性，欧洲央行管理委员后关于紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)将在未来12个月保持净购买的决定是正确的，无论如何，购债将持续到管理委员会认定危机已经过去为止。
欧洲央行副行长金多斯早些时候表示，自从欧洲央行3月份推出该货币政策措施以来，金融市场动荡演变为金融危机的风险已经大幅减退。经历了前所未有的低迷之后，在非常宽松的货币和财政政策支持，以及全球经济活动将逐步恢复的前景推动下，预计下半年欧元区经济将反弹。但是这种恢复的速度和规模是极其不确定的。
自欧盟复苏基金的好消息传出以来，以欧元计价的风险资产的交易更为强劲，尽管救助计划的规模不是“很惊人”，但它肯定是欧洲政策和经济增长朝正确方向迈出的一步，从本质上说，欧盟“解体”的风险溢价现在已经明显降低，可能在中期支撑欧元。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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