金价暴涨，美联储会议在即，德拉基放鸽
关键词：美联储会议在即
6月18日，现货黄金转而上升，虽然市场在美联储决议出炉前调整了仓位，美元指数跌至低位，但欧洲央行行长德拉基发表鸽派言论，欧元受到重创，美元快速拉升。面对全球各大经济体进入宽松周期，黄金受到市场青睐。
欧洲央行行长德拉基周二称，如果通胀没有回到目标位，央行将再次放松政策。这巩固了市场对欧洲央行将在未来几周推出更多刺激措施的预期。欧元兑美元短线急挫近60点至6月3日以来新低1.1181；美元指数大涨近35点至6月3日以来新高97.748。
欧洲央行错过本轮加息周期已几乎成定局，欧元有望开启新一轮大幅下挫走势。同时欧元区经济前景不佳，也巩固了市场既有的避险情绪，黄金并未因美元大涨而受到压制，盘中最大涨幅仍超过1%。
面对美国总统特朗普要求降息的新压力，美联储可能为今年稍晚降息埋下伏笔，但在本周的政策会议上预计仍维持利率不变。
欧洲央行已亮明未来可能降息，而特朗普此前还指责欧元兑美元汇率过高。这样一来，美联储面对来自特朗普的压力将被成倍放大，不排除美欧之间、乃至全球将掀起新一轮宽松竞赛，特朗普希望快速贬值美元的梦想恐难以实现。
美联储主席鲍威尔本月稍早在芝加哥表示，美联储将“采取适当行动”应对贸易争端和其他事态发展带来的风险。
美联储自今年年初以来不断使用“耐心”一词，表明其暂停进一步升息的意愿。但鲍威尔的言论明显没有提及“耐心”。
外界虽非全体一致，但也普遍预期美联储将放弃“耐心”对待未来利率行动的承诺，为在以后的政策会议上降息敞开大门。
尽管失业率仍接近50年低点，但上月非农就业岗位仅增加7.5万个。通胀率仍低于美联储2%的目标。亚特兰大联储GDP Now预测模型上周五显示，美国经济第二季环比增长年率预计为2.1%，低于第一季3.1%的增长率。
对关税壁垒可能进一步抑制美国乃至全球经济增长的担忧，是市场预期美国将在年底前超过两次降息的主要原因之一，也是迫使其他央行跟进宽松的主要外在压力。各国本币的贬值压力，将促使投资选择黄金。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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