美联储严重偏鸽，黄金急速上涨
关键词：美联储偏鸽
3月21日 ，美联储明显的鸽派言论让美元创新近日新低，现货黄金再次走强，美债收益率持续下降，这从长期看来会支撑黄金的走强。但是目前黄金的上涨比较反复，黄金ETF的持仓量没有明显增加。
鲍威尔在之后的发布会上称，美联储将保持耐心和观望状态。希望维护美国经济强劲增长的前景，目前就业市场强劲，通胀接近2%目标，预期2019年美国经济增速坚实，但小于2018年过于强劲的涨势。预期今年底，资产负债表占GDP比重约为17%，峰值时期占比为25%。同时美联储拟今年5月将美债缩表规模减半，到9月末停止缩表。
美元从高位回落，债券收益率也在下降，这意味着这些资产的吸引力下降，黄金变得更有吸引力。美元指数已经连续四个交易日下跌，在美联储利率决议后跌破96大关，刷新一个半月新低。
英国脱欧局势仍然受到关注，英国首相特雷莎·梅周三表示，已向欧洲理事会主席Tusk致信，英国寻求脱欧延长至6月30日，英国的政策目标仍是有序脱欧。
进入本周以来，美债收益率正在测试关键支撑位，由于美联储今年再次加息的可能性为零，突显出投资者对美债收益率更大的担忧以及美联储对美国经济状况的忧虑正日益加剧。
美债收益率此前跌破2016/2018的上升趋势线后，随后又跌破对称三角形，预计美债收益率将进一步下挫。由于美债收益率与黄金呈现负相关性，若美债继续下行，这将支撑金价后市涨势。
黄金价格与基金经理净头寸之间的高度相关性。在过去的几年里，两者的变动非常接近，这或许在暗示黄金受到操纵。另一中可能的解释是，投资者的情绪随着价格而波动。随着价格走高，大众投资者变得更有信心，并进一步买入黄金，基金经理当然也不例外，只是其看涨的程度并不如大众投资者。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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