美联储可能降低年内加息次数，缩表计划同步放出
关键词：美联储加息次数
美联储将公布3月利率决议，同时公布加息次数以及对市场经济的预期，市场预料今年会下调美联储的加息次数，同时公布关于停止缩表计划的相关细节。而如何缩减庞大的资产负债表是市场关注的重点。
美联储今年初以来已暗示对加息保持“耐心”，为三年来货币政策逐步收紧画下句号。本轮紧缩周期联储已加息九次，包括在2017-2018年期间的七次。
上述看法是否与美联储的决策者一致，将会在随同政策声明一同发布的最新季度经济和利率预估中一窥究竟。2018年12月美联储预估2019年加息两次，但外界普遍认为3月决议后，加息次数预预期将降低至一次。
只有当七名理事全部下调预估时，才会让今年的加息次数预估中值降为零，意味着利率预估水平与原先相差了整整0.5个百分点，自美联储2012年开始公布利率预期“点阵图”以来，如此大的变化幅度只有过一次。
预计缩表计划的细节也将同时公布，投资者将能够了解缩表还将持续多久，以及停止缩表时美联储的资产情况。
美联储官员普遍认为，几个月后美联储资产规模就将达到适合停止缩表的水平，结束缩表宜早不宜迟。
这将是美联储开始三轮量化宽松前资产负债表规模的三倍多。美联储为应对2007-2009年经济危机和衰退，在这三轮操作中买进了数以万亿计美元的美债和抵押贷款支持证券。
美联储在危机期间和之后使资产负债表大幅膨胀，2017年10月开始“正常化”，每月稳步缩表，削减规模至多为500亿美元。
在研究过金融市场对缩表的反应，以及金融机构存放在美联储的准备金的使用情况后，美联储认为管理利率走势的最有效方式是让准备金保持“充沛”，例如对超过法定最低准备金要求的超额准备金支付利率。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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