王垣鑫：回踩支撑后市多空谁主沉浮
现货黄金在本周早些时候经过了一轮高位震荡后，最终以回踩调整收场，其实本周的回踩在一开始已经有所预示，上周非农冲高承压40周线后，本周开线在远离ma5的位置继续受压这种情况对多头并不友好，另外虽然1240一线支撑效果强劲，空方长时间并未能攻破，但日线级别上看就非常清晰，本周日线整体震荡下行，5日线支撑失效，加之4小时级别macd的顶背离调整一直在持续，回调欲望较浓，最终在本周交易日结束之前完成了回踩周线支撑的动作。
市场静候利率决议来袭
下周将迎来美联储12月的利率决议，虽然此前美联储主席鲍威尔态度有所转变，令市场对美联储提前结束加息进程的情绪升温，但目前市场对本次加息结果保持观望情绪，有分析认为美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在接近中性水平的时候强调数据的依赖性，点阵图也可能被安排在一个稍微鸽派一点的方向，而美元指数也在本周重新反弹回此前的上行通道内，料本次利率决议结果亦将对美元指数后市产生重大影响。
多头惜败但后市仍可期待
回望2018年的走势，现货黄金整体走势仍以低位调整为主，经过第一季度于1300整数关口上方的宽幅震荡走势过后，第二季度开始一波持续5个月，幅度150美元以上的回落仍今年金价冲击1400一线的希望早早成为泡影，但第四季度在金价触底后出现新转机，本年度的一波回落走势虽然持续时间长且幅度较大，但其受支撑的位置较前方低点稍高，并且目前正有脱离底部区间的迹象，适逢市场对于美联储加息周期提前结束的预期增大，明年第一季度实物金需求旺季也即将来临之际，现货黄金走出低位反弹结构，有望重演上年底的行情在12月到1月之间直接起涨，明年继续完成今年未能完成的目标冲击1400一线。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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