ADP数据难以锦上添花，坐等美联储决议
美国自动数据处理公司5月2日公布数据显示，美国4月ADP就业人数增加20.4万，好于预期但不及前值；但鉴于目前市场更关心美国的薪资增速，以及稍晚将公布的美联储利率决议，故ADP数据虽靓丽，但美元指数微升至92.37后回落，黄金下挫1美元至1307.96美元后反弹。
ADP报告显示：美国劳动力市场保持稳健的增长步伐；4月建筑业就业人数新增2.7万人，3月增加3.1万人；4月制造业就业人数新增1万人，3月增加2.9万人。
报告还显示，4月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数新增1.4万人，3月增加4万人；4月金融服务业就业人数新增0.7万人，3月增加1.8万人；4月专业/商业服务就业人数新增5.8万人，3月增加4.4万人。
报告认为，随随着劳动力市场收紧，雇主将更难找到熟练技工。此外，在目前的步伐下，美国失业率将很快进入3%-3.9%区间。而失业率进入3%-3.9%区间将是具有风险性的，因经济面临过热的威胁。
分析师则表示，劳动力市场继续保持稳健的增长速度，几乎没有放缓的迹象。各领域中，专业/商业服务领域就业增加人数领先，同样依赖熟练劳动力的建筑业第6个月保持稳定增长。
美国ADP就业数据素来有“小非农”之称，此次数据表现强劲，暗示周五非农就业增长可能也表现靓丽；不过，由于最近一年来，美国就业市场持续表现强劲，接近充分就业，美联储的关注焦点转向薪资增速，因薪资增速与通胀直接相关，而低迷的通胀是美联储加速升息的最大障碍；目前市场聚焦美联储管委会在此次利率决议上将更新的对通胀的看法，故此次强劲的ADP数据对美元的提振比较有限，也仅短暂打压黄金。
尽管在天气因素的拖累下，美国3月非农就业人口增幅仅增加10.3万，但一季度就业人口增幅相对强劲，非农就业人口月度增幅达到了20.2万。分析认为4月非农就业人口增幅将扭转3月的低迷之势，因部分对天气变化敏感行业的就业人口将扩大。此外薪资增长若显示加速现象，可能暗示通胀压力正在扩大，这将提升外界对美联储年内加息的预期。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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