熊傲君：中东局势缓和，市场反应不大
2018.04.17黄金策略
昨日回顾：上周金价大起大落后，周一整体走势较为和缓，小幅上升但幅度有限，一方面受周末轰炸叙利亚影响后有所降温，另一方面市场正在消化上周的走势。早间开盘一度上行至1348附近，随后受压回落至1341附近，但是欧美盘站稳后保持震荡上行，后市一度冲高至1350上方，不过未能站稳，最终仍收在1347附近，现阶段早盘正测试1345一线支撑，昨日波动实际不大，数据影响力也较为一般，恐怕周二以及周三的延续走势更为关键。
消息面：昨晚公布的零售销售数据虽好于预期，但影响有限，金价甚至在短期内站稳向上，近段时间数据的影响都较为有限，市场并未受到上周末美国对叙利亚展开军事打击影响，避险情绪并未显著升高。主要由于美国并未流露进一步对叙利亚进行打击的迹象，后续局势或趋向和缓，使得不确定性风险基本释放，金价表现平淡，而美股则展开反弹。晚间还需继续留意晚间美国经济数据的表现和美联储官员的讲话。
今日展望：昨晚金价虽小幅走高，但未能有效破位1350反压，所以日间此处仍是重压，冲高后的回落位置在1345附近，所以1345-1350区间将会日内的多空判断区域，若能欧盘走强任意一方，那么日内必有偏袒，当然下破1345，下方空间恐怕也最多是1338-1340，而上方一旦破位，则是1358-1360，由此可见目前的局势多头是要稍微占优的，但可惜的是延续力度不大，所以需要等待，否则仍有扫单风险，欧盘重点关注1345支撑，若能站稳不妨激进一些介入多单，若想稳健，则等待欧盘破位1350后的回踩介入多单，届时可以1345下方作为止损保护。
从现货黄金1小时图看：金价目前温和反弹，整体关注下方趋势线支撑为主，若跌破1345，其实也不代表下行空间多大，只是节奏上要调整，换言之1340上方都是看涨，只是若站稳1345，走强力度会较大，重点还是在于欧盘的强弱，目前先关注1345，若亚盘跌破不用急于操作，届时会形成亚盘低点参考，所以除非是欧盘直接跌穿亚盘低点，甚至跌穿1340，否则多头还是要略微占优。
操作建议： 1300-1320长线多单继续耐心持有，今年目标依旧是1400上方，加息已过，继续轻仓持有即可（本月有望到达）。短线今天建议关注大区间1340-1350，若欧盘走强，可关注上方1358一线。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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