熊傲君：战火重燃，避险能维持多久？
2018.04.16黄金策略
上周回顾：上周金价走势如同过山车，反复出现大幅涨跌，此前由于贸易战的事情已经让市场十分混乱，而上周的美俄叙利亚问题，一度让金价涨至1365一线附近，不过随后却出现大幅回落，再次跌破1340支撑，而当中的数据几乎起不到很大的作用，周五最后时刻金价多头再次反扑，最终收在1345一线附近，今日早间小幅冲高至1350受压，目前再次回落至1340上方，行情走势恐还是面临震荡走势，毕竟避险带来的上行不够稳定。
消息面：上周整体数据保持中性为主，周初的通胀数据表现良好，周尾初请等数据表现未如预期，但整体还算可观，不过上周的焦点全在于地缘政治情绪方面，特朗普多次发声将会对叙利亚地区实施轰炸，并且将对俄罗斯进行新一轮的制裁，周末英美法联合对叙利亚展开空袭，而且贸易摩擦的动态消息也不容忽视此外，本周多位美联储官员将陆续发表讲话、加拿大央行将公布利率决议、欧佩克联合部长级监督委员会将举行会议。
今日展望：现阶段金价仍在震荡的环节当中，近段时间市场有点混乱，尽管避险情绪在短期内能够帮助金价多头爆发，但由于其快进快退，因此涨后的回调也是相当惊人，所以要多头上行还是希望保持技术面式的稳定攀升，而非避险的虚破冲高。日内金价暂时围绕1340-1350区间波动，日内操作上还是要注意欧盘的强弱走势，若再度破位1340，恐怕金价还将往下测试1330关口，反之若金价能攻克1350，后市有望再冲前高，不过今天是周一，也有可能还是局部震荡调整过渡，因此短期观望等待，中长观点不改。
从现货黄金1小时图看：上周金价尾段再次筑底反弹，形态有双底的呈现，不过早间的升幅已基本到位，目前需注意1340一线上方的颈线测试位，以及下方1338附近的趋势线位置，若再跌破，那么周初可能还将测试1330位置，早间上升后没站稳，代表多头延续力度不大，所以目前看多就不能过于激进，现阶段短期均线组形成死叉向下压制，至少应等待周期性调整后再接多单，因为目前欧盘要走强的难度很大，走弱的可能性更大一些。
操作建议： 1300-1320长线多单继续耐心持有，今年目标依旧是1400上方，加息已过，继续轻仓持有即可（本月有望到达）。短线今天建议关注大区间1337-1348，若欧盘较弱，下方可拉大关注至1330。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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