熊傲君：非农数据强劲，金价不为所动！
2018.03.12黄金策略
上周回顾：上周金价出现周初小幅反弹后，却没有延续，而是在周三开始回落，并且补回周内涨幅，整体呈现冲高回落走势。上周仍然受到众多利空消息面影响，包括非农数据，官员讲话以及美元走势等等，不过在周五非农数据强劲的情况下却也没有导致金价进一步走弱，此乃预期散尽的影响，因此现阶段金价仍然保持在1320一线附近波动，加息在即，市场更像在等待观望，而非继续承压下行，这已经是多于多头很好的信号。
消息面：美联储于上周发布经济褐皮书，表明美国劳动力市场保持强劲，而小非农数据也是印证了这点，周四的欧元区利率决议以及德拉基讲话中没有对美元达成施压，而是导致欧元冲高回落，美元保持反弹走势，到了周五万众瞩目的非农数据中，就业人数增加大幅超过预期到达31万，尽管薪资水平及失业率没有到达预期，但表现依旧尚算靓丽，表明就业市场仍在稳步增长，暗示本年加息的节奏可能进一步加快。
今日展望：上周反复走势过后，本周属于加息前的关键一周，预料整体消息面仍是利空一线，但我们已经可以发现，利空对金价下行的影响已经是相当有限，反而是出现利多的时候，金价的强势反弹力度相当大，因此本周更有可能是震荡偏弱走势，待下周加息展开正式多头上攻。日间暂时波动不大，建议仍旧是先观察欧盘强弱走势，围绕1320-1325区间破位跟进，若欧盘有方向表现，美盘直接顺势跟进，上看1332，下看1313。
从现货黄金4小时图看：金价目前陷入震荡走势，上周利空下跌后触底反弹，留出下影阳线，表明下方支撑较为强劲，目前均线组表现较为纠结，短期方向并不明朗，以区间对待更为合理，形态上仍需后市进一步确认，MACD指标在0轴下方运行，但距离不远，若有强阳上攻，亦会重回0轴上方，所以不论价格还是市场都静待进一步消息的指引，操作上宜先观察而后动。
操作建议： 1300-1320长线多单坚定持有，今年目标依旧是1400上方，加息前若有回调依旧可以进场。加息前预料还会有一次探低机会，想跟进的不要再错过了。短线上建议观察欧盘强弱走势，待1320-1325区间破位后美盘顺势跟进。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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