美联储9月加息成谜 黄金1350争夺激烈
因美国7月CPI零增长周二亚欧时段美元指数持续走弱，给金价反弹提供了动能，金价盘中大涨近1%，冲破1350美元一线。但好景不长，美国纽约联储主席杜德利在数据公布后发表鹰派讲话，帮助美元反弹，金价遭遇重击，回落至1345美元下方。截至发稿金价再次反弹回1350上方。
隔夜公布的数据显示，美国7月季调后CPI月率为持平，近2月份以来最低，符合预期但不及前值，前者增长0.2%；美国7月未季调核心CPI月率则增长0.1%，好于预期，预期增长0.2%，前值增长0.2%。
数据还显示，美国7月未季调CPI年率上升0.8%，升幅低于预期值0.9%和前值1.0%；美国7月未季调核心CPI年率增长2.2%，不及预期，预期增长2.3%，预期增长2.3%
路透评论指出，美国7月CPI月率为0%，创今年2月以来最低增速，主要因7月汽油价格下降4.7%，为自今年2月份以来首次下跌；食品价格保持稳定水平，但家庭的食品消费成本下降了0.2%；7月CPI数据暗示美国通胀水平温和，从而也进一步减少了美联储在今年加息的可能性。
美国7月CPI数据公布之际，美元指数一度刷新一个半月低点至94.43，现货黄金则冲高创一周新高至1358.05美元/盎司。
但在数据公布后，美国纽约联储主席杜德利便发表了极鹰派讲话，帮助美元回升，黄金则遭遇重击。
杜德利表示，9月份加息仍有可能，如果我们能在年内加息，那将会是好消息；整体通胀有所上升，核心通胀仍然持平，通胀似乎正朝着2%的目标迈进，我们正在接近加息时点；仍然预计到2017年之前将加息超过一次；预计下半年GDP增长将有所复苏，总体而言下半年经济形势将更佳 ；美国总统大选对货币政策决定没有影响.
这一言论大出市场预料，再度提振了市场对美联储年内加息的预期，联邦基金利率期货市场数据显示，12月加息几率升至50%(数据公布前为44.8%)，9月加息概率升至22%(此前为18%)。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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