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加息概率骤降 黄金大幅上涨

黄金期货市场2015年9月黄金期价8月20日收于每盎司1136.6美元,比前一交易日上涨了16.6美元,涨幅为1.49%。白银期货上涨了2.9%,报16.27美元。

CPI表现不佳:美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示,美国7月CPI月率增长0.1%,预期增长0.2%,前值增长0.3%。美国7月CPI数据意外下滑,表明当前美国的经济发展进程没有预期来得好,同时,这可能会拖累美联储加息的时间,这对美元构成利空,使美元承压下挫,从而提振黄金,促使国际金价强势反弹。

加息概率骤降:FOMC周三发布的7月28日至29日会议纪要显示,只有一名美联储决策者,在7月28-29日会议上,准备投票支持加息,而其他部分决策者认为,已达到或有信心将很快达到,可以开始上调,联邦基金利率目标区间的经济状况。从这里来看,美联储大部分官员对通胀前景有信心,也就是说目前加息的条件尚未完全实现,这使市场对美联储9月加息的乐观情绪消退,打压美元,从而提振黄金,助涨国际金价。


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