低通胀困扰美联储 7月纪要大放“鸽”声
关键词：低通胀困扰美联储 7月纪要大放“鸽”声
北京时间周四(8月20日)凌晨公布的美联储7月会议纪要显示，尽管决策者继续对低通胀和全球经济状况脆弱表达了普遍的担忧，但就业市场不断改善使美联储升息的几率进一步增加。部分决策者称中国经济的实质性放缓或对美国前景构成风险。
会议记录显示，一位美联储官员准备支持升息，但愿意等待更多数据公布。多数美联储官员称升息的理据仍不充分，但经济状况“正在接近那个点”。几乎所有美联储官员表示需要看到更多经济成长和就业市场改善，足以推高通胀的证据。多数美联储官员称有进一步削减就业市场闲置的空间；数位官员表示已经或接近实现充分就业。多位美联储官员认为就业市场闲置将在短期内基本被消除。
此前公布的7月FOMC会议声明和6月相比也并没有太多变化，唯FOMC降低了加息前劳动力市场改善的门槛。从必须看到“进一步改善”，变为只需要“一些进一步改善”，强化了市场对于9月加息的预期。不过，考虑近期市场的变化和波动，市场开始预期一个更加平缓的加息循环。鉴于美联储的双重使命，顽固的持续低通胀引起了美联储的担忧。
周四公布的美国7月消费者物价指数(CPI)较前月仅微幅上升0.1%，为连续第6个月走高，因飞机票价录得自1995年以来的最大降幅。不过，通胀压力温和不太可能削弱美联储在今年升息的意图。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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