“自然”失业率下降等于推迟加息
关键词：“自然”失业率下降等于推迟加息
旧金山联储周一（7月7日）发布的一份研究显示，美国“自然”失业率水平越低，货币政策决策者能保持低利率的时间可能就越长。
美联储决策者6月下调该国中长期的失业率预估，该指标可解释为经济充分就业。该数据从2012年时的约5.6%下调至约5.1%。他们同时下调短期借贷成本并减去2%的通胀率预估，从2.25%下调至1.63%；2%通胀率被视为是完全正常经济的应有水准。
根据这份最新研究，尽管这两项预估下调后暗示的政策利率水平，都比之前暗示的水平低，但“自然”失业率预估的下降，可能对决策产生更大影响。
旧金山联储分析师MaryDaly、Fernanda Nechio和Benjamin Pyle，在地区联储最新经济研究报告中写道，一个简单的货币政策规则显示，与稍早的那些预估相比，自然失业率的下降，就可能意味着宽松货币政策将维持更长时间；同时，实质均衡利率的下降，可能意味着长期平均政策利率将低。
他们补充表示，久而久之，自然失业率的调整，对未来政策利率下降前景的影响就越来越大。
旧金山联储主席威廉姆斯表指出，他相信美联储年底前加息两次可能是合适的。他认为，到年底美国经济或会实现充分就业。该联储自2008年以来，一直维持其短期利率在近零水准。
美联储决策层中，约有一半人认同这一观点，但是，另一半人更倾向于，加息步伐不宜太大。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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