9月中旬黄金需求将改善
关键词：机构报告
驻伦敦咨询机构Metals Focus周二在最新的研究报告中称，预计从9月中旬开始实物黄金的需求将逐步改善，这能对四季度金价构成支撑，意味着年底金价不会跌破1200美元/盎司。
Metals Focus指出，近几周来上海黄金交易所的黄金需求持续增加，而溢价变化却十分小，暗示库存正处于高位。同时，印度10月23日将迎来传统宗教节日排灯节，受雨季改善的影响，今年印度的实物金需求虽说会不及去年，但整体仍将呈增长预期。
另一方面，近期土耳其正考虑恢复购买黄金珠宝的信用卡分期付款，该服务曾在今年2月叫停，一度抑制了土耳其国内的黄金珠宝需求。Metals Focus预计进入四季度后，黄金买盘将缓慢地、逐步地增加，并为金价上行提供持续的动能。同时，这也意味着金价在1200美元附近存在显著的支撑，因此到年底为止金价都不会轻易跌破该水平。
另外，道明证券周二在报告中称，尽管上周乌克兰东部已签订停火协议，但隔夜欧盟还是进一步对俄罗斯的能源、政府以及金融行业加强了制裁力度，这可能最终促使俄罗斯央行抛售黄金，以保证足够的流动性。
欧盟周一决定，由于俄罗斯卷入乌克兰冲突，将对俄采取新的制裁行动，但推迟制裁生效的时间，以便留出时间评估乌克兰的停火是否正在得到执行。制裁原定周二生效，目的在于限制俄罗斯大型石油生产企业在欧洲的融资能力。
俄罗斯是全球第五大黄金储备国，总黄金储备高达3550万盎司，占该国总储备的9.7%。如果西方禁止俄罗斯出售主权债，那么俄罗斯的外汇储备将逐步递减，最终导致黄金储备占比失调。如果俄罗斯外汇储备如其预料的那样下滑，可能会迫使央行抛售黄金储备，而这一行为可能导致国际金价走低。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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