青岛港调查或助涨金价
关键词：金价上涨因素
青岛港调查融资骗贷的影响不仅限于铜价，金价近期的一波强势上攻有可能与其有关。
据高盛投资银行及证券集团公司(Goldman Sachs)在报告中指出，中国的商品融资规模1600亿美元，黄金、铜和铁矿石是三种主要的融资商品，其他还有大豆、棕榈油、橡胶、镍、锌和铝。
高盛认为，与“铜融资”形式类似，凭借用于进口黄金的黄金贷款或信用证，部分个人或企业能够取得低成本短期融资，甚至避开资本管制，将资金带入中国，尤其是在传统银行贷款条件趋严的背景下。
在铜融资开始时，铜融资方会在市场买入现货作为融资抵押品，但为减小价格波动风险，然后在期货市场上卖空该商品作为对冲。
青岛港事件可能导致铜融资交易快速关闭，此前被融资交易锁定的现货金属将会流向现货市场，期货市场原来的对冲空单被买入平仓，大量铜现货涌入市场的结果是对现货价格的打压远超对期货价格产生的提振。
青岛港事件之后，财经资讯博客网站Zerohedge评论认为，与铜融资模式类似，中国原来的金融资企业开始抛售手中的实物黄金，然后在期货市场上将原来的空单买入平仓，这就推高了期货市场上的黄金价格。
但由于黄金在中国的实物需求量非常大，融资方可以很容易的找到接盘方，抛售现货不会对现货价格产生多少打压，但他们在期货市场上的买单却实实在在的推高了黄金价格。
而铜因为基本面需求疲弱，供给较充足，实物的抛售会打压现货市场价格，同时期货价格的上升最后导致现货较期货溢价减少。
所以这解释了为什么商品融资崩盘会导致铜铁等工业金属价下跌而金银等贵金属价格上升。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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