美财政赤字大幅改善将加速黄金多头出逃
关键字：美国财政赤字
美国财政部于5月12日公布，2014年财年前7个月的政府财政收入为1.7万亿美元，同比上升8.2%，财政开支为2万亿美元，同比下降2.4%，财政赤字总额为3064亿美元，同比下降了37%。其中，4月份的财政收入约为4142亿美元，同比上升1.8%，财政支出约为3074亿美元，同比上升4.6%，实现1068亿的盈余。
虽然由于4月中旬为美国报税季的最后期限，通常会使这个月份的税收大幅增加，因而也容易在该月份出现财政盈余，此次4月份实现盈余很重要的一个原因就是个人所得税收入出现大幅度的增加。据历史统计，过去60年中，4月份实现财政盈余的年份有48个。但正如在之前关如何解读美国就业报告的文章所提到的，我们在通过观察美国就业市场的情况来判断美国经济是否改善的时候，不能仅盯着每个月的失业率和每个月新增就业人数这两个指标。
而除了以上两个指标外，也可以通过工时、薪资等来判断经济是否在正常运转。此次4月份的税收激增，至少也给我们一个信号，那就是就业员工的薪资在增加，毕竟税收在增加。因而，可以说，此次美国财政赤字大幅下降，至少也给市场传递了一个信号，那就是美国的经济确实是在复苏，且有望进一步改善美国的资产负债表。这种美好的预期，将会进一步的强化市场对美联储将不会再次压低美国长期国债收益率的预期。
这点与美联储当前稳步缩减QE的货币政策也是相当吻合的。也就是说，美国的长期国债收益率将有望抬升，而国债收益率的抬升，势必也会利好美元指数的走势，从而对黄金形成一定的打压。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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