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加帝国商业银行:金价涨势或面临强回调

关键字:金价大涨、2014黄金价格走势、金价回落原因

《Kitco News》报导,加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)周二(3月11日)在研究报告中指出,2014年至今国际金价已经累计上扬超过11%,并几次上探1,350美元/盎司的关键水平。然而,该行认为金价的上涨只是一轮反弹,并且可能很快回跌。该行在今年年初预计2014年黄金均价将在1,350美元/盎司,而当时金价仅约1,205美元/盎司左右。

报告称,根据此前作出的黄金均价预估,2014年金价可能会触及1,500美元/盎司,目前这样的可能性仍然存在,但预期不会在今年上半年发生。短期来看,该行预计金价有可能触及1,425美元/盎司,但同时回跌风险也正在不断增加。

该行认为金价近期上扬主要是受到基本面的支撑,包括强劲的实物金需求以及全球的地缘政治风险。不过,今年金价可能面临更多的下跌压力,最主要的两大风险来自于美国经济快速复苏以及美联储2015年可能升息。

在金矿商的部分,该行认为,尽管年初至今各大矿企的股价都有大幅的反弹,可一旦金价重新跌至1,200美元/盎司,金矿商的股价可能会暴跌超过25%。

中国黄金协会副会长张永涛上周则称,金价应该已经寻获底部,因为多数金矿商的生产成本约在每盎司1,100-1,200美元之间,一旦金价过度下跌,矿商将不得不进行减产。根据Thomson Reuters GFMS报告,2013年黄金生产的总维持成本(all-in sustaining costs, AISC)为每盎司1,200美元,较上一年度的1,228美元略微下降。

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