瑞银下调金银价格预估
关键字：金银价格下调
《MINEWEB》12月3日报导,瑞银投研(UBS Investment Research)最新报告将2014年的平均金价预估自每盎司1,325美元下调至1,200美元,称金价不仅要面对目前来自投资人的庞大卖压,且未来能够带来激励的正面因素也相当有限,认为黄金可能无法再恢复过往的强劲吸引力。瑞银称金价的下跌趋势仍在继续,可能将测试每盎司1,050美元价位,而尽管该价位可能提供短暂支撑,趋势仍旧并不有利。
瑞银表示,包括全球经济展望改善、极端事件的尾部风险降低,以及投资人的风险偏好增强等,都使得黄金作为避险资产的吸引力降低;而金价在连续十多年的涨势之后,今年以来逆转大跌,已经很好地说明了整体大环境的巨大转变。除了下调金价预估以外,瑞银也将2014年平均银价的预估自每盎司25美元下调至20.50美元,2015年平均银价预估自24美元下调至21美元。银价今年以来大跌37%,是跌幅最大的贵金属。
瑞银表示,虽然预期明年度的平均金价为每盎司1,200美元,但其间可能会有相当大幅度的震荡,因为金价面对总经环境的变化仍将持续调整,同时也要因应供给以及需求情势的改变。金价今年以来大跌27%,年内低点是六月份所触及的34个月新低每盎司1,180.50美元价位。法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)策略分析师Alain Bokobza最新报告则是预估2014年第四季平均金价将下跌至1,050美元。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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