美国10年债殖利率一周挫15基点 跌幅创7月新高
关键字：美国公债殖利率
受联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)18日意外维持量化宽松货币政策(QE)不变、美股下挫的影响,美国10年公债殖利率20日续跌,过去一周跌幅更创今(2013)年7月以来新高。美国股市20日因国会议员对举债上限的争论益发激烈、市场静待德国周日(22日)大选结果的影响而出现下挫走势 。
彭博社报导,根据Bloomberg Bond Trader报价,纽约债市9月20日尾盘时,10年期公债殖利率下跌2个基点至2.73%,盘中一度下挫4个基点;过去一周以来总计大跌了15个基点,创7月12日当周以来最大单周跌幅。债券价格与殖利率呈现反向走势。
这是殖利率连续第2周下滑,显示债市在经历夏季的混乱后已开始止稳,而FOMC决议将QE规模维持不变,也舒缓殖利率恐将续涨的疑虑。联准会(FED)主席柏南克(Ben S. Bernanke)18日在FOMC货币政策会议结束后召开记者会表示,美国就业市况仍远不如他的期望,且最近数月的金融环境快速紧缩,官员们也担忧经济成长恐怕会因此趋缓。FOMC 18日决议将每个月收购债券的规模维持不变。
华尔街日报20日报导,全球最大基金公司贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)固定收益部投资长Rick Rieder表示,FED维持QE不变将抑制殖利率近期涨势,他已在最近买进了一些10年期公债;倘若殖利率上升至接近3%,则会是不错的买点。
法国巴黎银行美国利率策略师Aaron Kohli则表示,FED货币政策方向充满不确定性,使得避险气氛大增,这对债市有利。他预估,美国10年期公债殖利率有可能会在未来几周下滑至2.55%。此外,以FED传达的讯息来看,QE应该不会太快减码,这有可能会减轻债券的抛售力道。
公债殖利率20日稍早一度因圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁James Bullard宣称FED有可能会在10月份小幅减码QE而反弹,但终场仍以下跌作收。最近公债价格经常因殖利率偏高吸引买盘而走扬。
Bullard在接受彭博电视专访时表示,FED维持QE不变的决定虽然颇具争议,但其实FOMC早已一而再、再而三地重申过QE减码与否仍端赖经济数据而定,因此市场不应对这次的决策感到惊讶。他还说,通膨压力仍低,因此FED有足够的筹码能够继续耐心等待,而官员们也似乎打算静待其变。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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