熊傲君：市場避險消退，金價短期待修正
2018.03.28黃金策略
昨日回顧：金價上周加息正式拉起反攻的帷幕，週一最高一度漲勢1357附近，不過隨後受到此處的趨勢線反壓，金價開始邁向回檔走勢，昨日金價高位回落，後市回到1350一線下方，考慮避險情緒消退，市場總體重回謹慎，週五也是美國節假日，因此市場交易開始減少，金價走勢重回短期震盪較為合理，所以早間反復測試1340一線，甚至有機會進一步回檔，接下來本周恐關注1330-1350區間為主。
消息面：在上周加息後，市場利空出盡，而隨後特朗普打開貿易戰序幕，導致全球美股出現暴跌，金價由此受到避險情緒，近兩日，避險情緒有所消退，半島地緣政治形勢在改善。報導指出，金正恩表示將願意放棄核武器，並將於今年4月與美國總統特朗普舉行峰會。市場關注晚間美國四季度GDP資料修正值的表現以及PCE物價指數的資料表現，另外本周是耶穌受難日，歐美市場休市一天，這可能導致隨後的市場走入較為平靜的局面。
今日展望：目前價格在1340附近上方徘徊，由於日內呈現震盪下行，因此今日可能暫不宜做多過於激進，整體看漲格局不變，長線看多不變，但是短線需要面臨調整震盪，晚間美盤需持續關注1338-1340區間支撐，若能守住美盤早段衝擊，以及眾多資料的打壓後，那麼可以嘗試接多單，反之若失守，我們就等待日線支撐再去考慮，例如下方1331-1333區間，此處必須要做多，只是擔心能不能到達罷了，本周收周線加月線，不太可能再走得過急，好戲可能還是在於4月份。
從現貨黃金日線圖看：前期加息後大漲，並觸及趨勢線附近壓力承壓，目前進入回檔當中，日線形態暫不佳，昨日走出陰包陽，偏調整格局居多，這種行情做多需要等待進一步破位元確認才能跟進，或下方強勁支撐處再去考慮，現階段均線組呈現多頭排列，K線在MA5下方，後市關注MA5與MA10區域，MACD指標上穿0軸後速率有所減弱，等待後市進一步確認，操作上建議日內關注區間高拋低吸為主，重點為1340-1350區間，若破位關注1333-1343區間。
操作建議： 1300-1320長線多單繼續耐心持有，今年目標依舊是1400上方，加息已過，低點或也再難給予，繼續輕倉持有即可。短線關注1340-1350區間，破位關注1333-1343區間，建議觀看歐盤強弱做日內高拋低吸為上。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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