原油價格飆升，經濟陷入不利
關鍵字：原油價格飆升
美國總統特朗普發言將伊朗原油出口降為“零”之後，伊朗幾次威脅要關閉霍爾木茲海峽，在在28日，伊朗表示並不謀求封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，希望保持暢通，和美國的關係也希望得到異性的緩解。
當前原油價格飆升成為世界經濟的又一個不利因素。布倫特原油價格今年以來上漲了約33%，接近六個月以來的最高水準。雖然需求旺盛導致的價格上漲通常反映出世界經濟的強勁態勢，但供應偏緊的衝擊是一個負面因素。
究竟影響幾何，將很大程度上取決於油價漲勢持續的程度。石油出口國自然盡享企業和政府收入增長，而石油消費國將承受油價上漲的成本，繼而加劇通脹並衝擊需求。終將有一天，油價上漲可能給所有人帶來損害。
影響會存在差異。油價上漲將損害家庭收入和支出，並可能加速通脹。作為世界上最大的石油進口國–中國易受衝擊，歐洲許多國家也依賴進口能源。季節性影響也會產生影響。隨著北半球夏季臨近，消費者可以改變所使用的能源，並縮減使用量。世界經濟放緩也將損害需求，繼而將對價格構成限制。
經濟學家表示，要說經濟增長會受到持續衝擊，那麼油價將需要保持在100美元上方。鑒於原油價格以美元計價，這也取決於美元的強弱。牛津經濟研究院的分析發現，布倫特油價若在2019年底前觸及每桶100美元，將意味著全球經濟生產總值水準到2020年末將比當前預期低0.6個百分點，平均通脹率將高出0.7個百分點。
分析師在一份報告中寫道,“我們看到油價大幅上漲的風險加劇，從短期來看，供應影響很可能會被其他地區的產量增加所抵消，但市場正在趨緊，所要面對的是供應面的又一次衝擊以及油價可能上探100美元。”
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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