烏克蘭局勢令市場緊張不安，美元升至兩周高位
周一(1月24日)美元指數尾盤漲0.26％至95.88，之前一度上漲0.5％；北約組織領導人試圖阻止俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之際，市場陷入緊張不安的狀態，提振了美元；與此同時，2年期美國國債收益率走低，得益于國債拍賣需求強勁以及投資者對美國經濟放緩感到擔憂。美國數據顯示，1月初的商業活動接近停滯，因産能約束揮之不去，而且新一輪新冠感染人數激增導致需求下降。
美聯儲加息前景和烏克蘭局勢緊張推高美元
美聯儲周三會議的前景，引發對美聯儲即將加息的預期，以及對俄羅斯和烏克蘭緊張局勢的擔憂引發的避險資金流入，推動美元上漲。德意志銀行分析師表示，預計美聯儲將在3月開始加息，今年加息4次，1月份會議將是美聯儲加息前的最後一次會議。然而，未來幾個月出現意外的鷹派風險是存在的，比如美聯儲有可能在3月加息，然後在今年加息六、七次。
美聯儲會議或令美元承壓
荷蘭國際集團表示，美聯儲可能會在周三的會議上宣布結束量化寬松計劃，這可能會給美元帶來壓力。如果美聯宣布結束QE，可能被市場解讀為，美聯儲的資産負債表將在政策正常化過程中發揮重大作用，這可能會給目前有關今年年底前將加息四次的預期潑冷水。美元目前的複蘇可能會因此陷入停滯或略微逆轉。不過，俄羅斯和烏克蘭的緊張局勢一旦升級，將對作為避風港的美元産生相反的影響。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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