美元創今年以來新低，商品貨幣領漲
周二(1月11日)美元指數跌0.37%，報95.61，創去年12月31日以來新低，此前美聯儲主席鮑威爾的證詞暗示，盡管美聯儲將使政策正常化，政策制定者仍在討論縮表的方式，並表示，有時可能需要兩次、三次或四次政策會議才能做出決定。
美聯儲資産負債表將是關鍵工具
美聯儲主席鮑威爾周二在參議院銀行委員會聽證會最重要的幾處發言都圍繞著他對美聯儲刺激經濟的看法。從他的表態來看，隨著疫情期經濟狀況的緩解，大幅收縮資産負債表規模對美聯儲將是一個至關重要的工具。縮表將給美聯儲提供更多手段來減少寬松力度，同時又不會令收益率曲線倒挂。
鮑威爾就資産負債表為何在未來可能發揮更關鍵作用給出了多個理由。首先，鑒于疫情的史無前例，美聯儲希望獲得政策靈活性。由于不確定性增加，選擇權是關鍵，縮表為美聯儲提供了更多行動選項。在回答賓州共和黨參議員Pat Toomey的問題時，鮑威爾花了不少時間來解釋美聯儲無法用需求側方案（例如加息）來解決供給側問題，這也暗示出資産負債表可能發揮作用。
加拿大央行將在1月首次加息 全年總計升息5次
摩根大通調整了對加拿大央行政策緊縮周期的展望，目前預計今年首次加息時間會在1月份，比之前預測的4月更早。摩根大通經濟學家Silvana Dimino在一份報告中寫道，預計2022年全年將有五次加息，到年底政策利率將累計提高1.5個百分點。
摩根大通還預計央行資産負債表在下半年會溫和收縮，但預計2022年不太可能出售資産負債表上的資産；貨幣市場完全消化了3月會議加息的預期，認為1月加息可能性超過50％；根據加拿大央行去年12月的言論，很明顯，勞動力市場的動態和經濟數據的出色表現令該行更加擔心産出缺口縮小的速度快于預期；我們預計與新冠病毒有關的破壞以及對信心的任何打擊都是短暫的；病例增長似乎正在放緩。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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