歐洲央行淡化匯率升值威脅，上調增速預期
關鍵字：歐洲央行淡化匯率升值威脅
9月10日晚，歐洲央行行長拉加德認為沒有必要對歐元升值有過激的反應，同時上調今年的經濟增速預期。稍早之前歐洲央行公佈利率決議，維持現有政策不變，但表明緊急抗疫購債計畫將更加靈活。
拉加德稱，國內需求出現顯著復蘇，但不確定性給消費者支出和商業投資帶來壓力，低能源價格抑制了通脹。未來幾個月總體通脹將保持負值，總體通脹將在2021年初轉為正值。從中期來看，需求的復蘇將給通貨膨脹帶來上行壓力。
歐洲央行預計2020年通脹率為0.3%，6月份預期為0.3%；歐洲央行預計2021年通脹率為1%，6月份預期為0.8%。歐洲央行上調了2022年核心通脹預期
歐洲央行行長拉加德面臨複雜的溝通問題。她不能忽視歐元匯率快速升值，也不能赤裸裸地發動匯率戰，只能採取模糊策略，口頭打壓歐元匯率。但引導匯率也是有風險的。
家庭在疫情封鎖期間節流儲蓄，存活下來的企業也只能把現金束之高閣。在歐洲，這兩個因素已經大為增強。如果新冠疫情結束，它們有可能刺激經濟復蘇。
此前英國首相詹森計畫部分推翻脫歐協議，這可能會違反國際法。該議案將在英國上議院和下議院進行辯論，需要兩院都通過才能成為法律。歐盟方面迅速予以指責，警告這樣做可能使達成協議的可能性化為泡影。在一些人看來，詹森可能正試圖刺激歐盟在一怒之下退出貿易磋商。
分析師表示：“就像在政治中經常看到的那樣，有意願，就有辦法。如果由於某種原因無法在10月達成協議，但討論正慢慢往解決方案靠近，那麼當政者很可能會找到一種方法，在12月前達成一項條約。”
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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