黃金多頭創曆史新高，美聯儲或被迫繼續出手寬松
周三（8月5日），現貨黃金之前交易日上漲勢頭，繼續刷新曆史高位至2044.85美元/盎司，根據大田環球分析師指出，美聯儲有可能轉向“平均通脹”目標，即容許甚至超過其設定的2%通脹目標。
美聯儲或被迫繼續出手寬松
隨著市場愈發認為美國複蘇表現落後于全球其他主要經濟體。外界臆測美國財政政策僵局可能會迫使美聯儲采取更多行動，這種猜測加劇了美國公債收益率的穩步下滑，使得美元受到更為全面的打擊。
大田分析師表示表示：“鑒于新冠疫情帶來的衝擊，無法保證美國經濟的表現會優于其他發達國家。美元利率也和其他發達國家經濟體利率靠攏，這意味著美元不在那麽有魅力。”
美聯儲官員近期的講話以及市場資深人士和經濟學家的分析均指出，美聯儲或轉向“平均通脹”目標，即容許甚至超過其設定的2%通脹目標。為了實現這一目標，官員們將保證在通脹和就業未達標之前不提高利率。由于目前的通貨膨脹率接近1％，失業率高于大蕭條以來的水平，因此美聯儲可能需要數年才能實現通脹目標。
大田分析師認為，盡管出現技術性超買，但仍然看好黃金，因長遠看淡美元，同時作為流動性帶動的通脹風險、地緣政治風險以及疫情的不確定性的對衝工具。以絕對價值而言，黃金處于曆史高位，如果經通脹調整，金價較曆史高位低25%。黃金出現技術性超買，主要因為零售投資者買入ETF，而非來自機構投資者投機部署。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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