歐銀決議鴿派態度超預期
關鍵字：歐銀決議
歐洲央行決議維持三大利率不變，但預計利率在2019年之前保持不變，同時將在9月實施為期兩年的定向長期再融資。由於歐銀決議的鴿派程度超出預期，美元指數短線走高，現貨黃金短線下跌後再次攀升。
近期歐元區數據疲軟是支撐美元持續走強的關鍵因素。不過隨著近期市場對於歐洲央行維持利率不變，加上歐洲經濟數據出現了小幅回暖的跡象，這使得近期美元走勢有所收斂，近兩個交易日承壓於97下方做窄幅震盪。
此前市場普遍預期歐洲央行不會調整前瞻指引，至少到4月會議上才會有所表態，同時近期歐洲央行曾表示目前放緩主要由暫時性因素所致，這些因素很快就會消退，進一步強化了市場對於歐洲央行不會調整前瞻指引的預期。
因此隨著歐洲央行修改前瞻指引，令市場對於歐洲增長前景的憂慮情緒明顯回升，因而推升美元走高。
值得注意的是，美元在上漲的過程中一度回吐大部分漲幅，自97.08附近回落至96.94附近。與此同時，一直備受美元打壓的黃金在出現了2美元下跌後回升4美元至1289.09美元/盎司，因避險情緒回升帶動黃金走強。
不過考慮到歐洲經濟前景的進一步惡化，美元隨後再次刷新高點至97.1796，而黃金則回吐大部分漲幅，現報1286.33美元。
儘管歐元區經濟前景進一步惡化使得市場避險情緒明顯回升，黃金短線走高，但是這也令市場認為德拉基很難釋放樂觀的信號，進一步弱化了美聯儲近期鴿派立場的影響。
而近期歐洲經濟的走軟是推動美元走高，施壓金價的關鍵因素，因此歐洲央行今日的表態進一步凸顯了美元的避險作用，因而再次施壓黃金。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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