美聯儲加息，黃金多頭不變的原因在這裏
12月20日，現貨黃金擺脫下跌趨勢，重新回到行情高位。因為美聯儲雖然進行了加息，但是收益率曲線曲平，而關於美國經濟明年可能大幅度放緩。同時美聯儲的加息，再度拉大了銀行超額準備金利率和基金利率的距離，被視為明緊暗松的做法。
雖然美聯儲點陣圖目前的確暗示明年升息次數為兩次，不過市場仍持懷疑態度，預期只會升息一次，反映出市場對全球經濟狀況的擔憂加劇。因美債收益率曲線趨平至10個基點，僅略高於本月稍早所及11年低位。
債券收益率曲線倒掛、也就是較長期債券收益率跌至低於較短天期債券收益率，美債收益率曲線被廣泛視為預示未來經濟衰退的指標，這些疑慮引發股市等風險資產的一波拋盤，美元重新走弱。
況且聯儲主席鮑威爾在記者會中暗示，2019年預計的兩次升息並非定數。他暗示，經濟數據將決定美聯儲明年最終會怎麼做。
分析師表示：“投資者原本做好了最壞的打算——不加息、出現異議、風險評估改變。儘管公告做出微調並降低了經濟增長和通脹預期，但調整幅度並沒有市場預期的那樣大。”
但美聯儲在結束政策會議後宣佈了一項技術性微調，這也是六個月內美聯儲第二度對不聽話的隔拆市場做出反應。銀行業儲備金日益減少，加上新發行的美國公債湧入市場，都讓美聯儲很難讓聯邦基金利率錨定於政策區間之內。
如果聯邦基金利率繼續上升，迫使美聯儲在2019年再次出手，一些分析師認為聯儲可能選擇較預期更早停止縮表。這可能使更多資產永久留在美聯儲手裏，實際上也就是更偏寬鬆的立場。
人們擔心隨著特朗普政府的支出舉措和1.5萬億美元減稅計畫帶來的財政刺激逐漸消退，加之全球經濟放緩，明年美國經濟可能舉步維艱，這是黃金能夠從美元那裏重新接棒避險功能的主要動力。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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