貿易戰在前，美聯儲在後，聯手施壓黃金
6月19日，受避險買盤帶來支撐，現貨黃金價格一度沖高逾0.4%，因中美兩國貿易爭端升級引發了股市拋售。但是在美元異常淩厲的上攻走勢開啟後，金價頹勢還是難免原形畢露。目前市場對貿易戰究竟利好還是利空美元看法存在分歧；而美聯儲政策趨向鷹派，則肯定利空黃金價格。
目前市場對貿易戰究竟利好還是利空美元看法存在分歧；而美聯儲政策趨向鷹派，則肯定利空黃金價格，並且從短線來看，蓋過了貿易戰風險的影響。
美國總統特朗普威脅將對2000億美元的中國商品加征10%關稅，中方迅速回應警告將進行反制。令中美間針鋒相對的貿易戰升級。投資人及企業界擔心貿易戰全面爆發恐將衝擊全球經濟增長。
先前美國政府祭出貿易保護措施時，曾削弱美元。但一些分析師稱，貿易戰可能有利於美元，進而打壓金價，因為進口關稅將加速美國通脹。美國正處在積極升息週期中，經濟表現已然強勁。
此外，美聯儲還輕微調高今年GDP增長及通脹預測，對失業率的展望亦更趨樂觀。點陣圖預示年底前仍有兩次加息機會，市場普遍認為美聯儲的取態較為鷹派。
分析師表示：“美聯儲已經升息，並且升息預期點狀圖已顯示今年或將再升息兩次，這未必意味著美聯儲會付諸實施，但黃金市場正對此作出反應。”
CFTC數據顯示，在6月5日到12日期間，對沖基金經理持有的黃金投機性淨多倉略微增加，投機性淨多倉雖然有所增加，但總量仍處於較低水準。
而在此期間，金價從1297美元下跌至1296美元，黃金ETF市場的表現也不盡人意，可見投資者對黃金的投資熱情極低。黃金市場顯然受到了美聯儲的較高利率打壓。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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