美聯儲大概率加息，看漲歐元
在特朗普頻頻開人，英國和俄羅斯開撕，各國政局亂象從生的背景下，歐元延續此前兩日的連跌勢態，再度跌破1.23關口，焦點轉向美聯儲3月利率決議；然而，法國興業銀行和摩根大通均看漲歐元，後市目標均上看1.30。
在美國總統特朗普頻頻開人，英國和俄羅斯開撕，各國政局亂象從生的背景下，美元指數延續週四(3月15日)的上漲之勢，於90關口上方震盪上行，歐元兌美元跌破1.23關口，延續此前兩日的連跌勢態，當前焦點轉向下周將公佈的美聯儲3月利率決議，由於近期美國經濟數據基本向好，美聯儲3月加息已成大概率事件，關注是否釋放年內加息次數的相關預期。
維持中期看漲歐元兌美元立場，一周前歐洲央行3月利率決議公佈後，匯價一度向上測試1.2450，此後跌破1.23關口，自此以來並未突破當前交投區間，德國國債收益率走軟時美國國債收益率的下滑也並未提供太大幫助。
歐元兌美元在漲至1.25上方的峰值後漲勢暫停，美國與歐元區利差水準可作出部分解釋，因美國較高的利率水準將衝擊歐元。
此外貨幣政策可能也發揮作用，因當前市場計價顯示年內美聯儲將加息三次，而歐洲央行料不會做出政策轉變，不過歐洲央行若轉變立場，可能打破這一僵局，並影響歐元和美元的匯率水準。最終美國雙赤字將衝擊美元，推動歐元兌美元漲向1.30。
月初公佈的歐洲央行3月利率決議在市場上引發了略偏鷹派的反應，不過行長德拉基的基調則謹慎偏鴿。
不過當前市場對歐洲央行利率預期的計價存在偏差，即使歐洲央行管委會在四季度不擴大資產購買，但其也不會提前加息，仍存在延遲加息可能。
歐洲央行3月利率決議進一步強化了當前市場計價，即其將於2019年年中首次加息。當前市場對歐銀的預期為，將進一步縮減量化寬鬆(QE)購買規模，並於明年年中加息，對管委會而言可能是可接受的中間地帶。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
最新內容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.