黄金期货套利如何操作
关键字:黄金期货套利如何操作
黄金期货套利是指当黄金期货市场的合约期货与黄金现货市场的某合约现货在价格上出现价差时,投资者可以利用两个市场上期货与现货价格的差距,在买入价格较低合约的同时卖出同等数量的价格较高合约,以此获取利润差价。
随着价差进一步缩小,投资者认为可以获利平仓时,卖出同等数量的原先价格较低合约和买入同等数量的原先价格较高合约分别平仓。
因为黄金是免税商品,它的定价往往取决于利率或者债券,因此,国内黄金价格与国际黄金会呈现一致的走势,通过相关性研究,两者走势相关性为0.996。两者之间换算公式为:国内黄金=国外黄金×人民币汇率/31.1035。所以国内黄金与国外黄金的比价主要是人民币汇率。
具体的操作方法是:国内企业通过在国内、国外期货市场开设账户,确保在两个市场中都有足额的资金用于保证金和保持保证金的动态平衡,一般来说国内市场保证金在10%,NYMEX市场保证金为5%,将两个市场的资金都放大到10%,合计总投资为20%。
例如:有1000万人民币资金,500万资金做国内期货,500万资金做国外期货,这500万资金换成美元为71万左右。
现货黄金400万资金做期货空头,相当于做4000万人民币的黄金;400万资金做NYMEX期货多头,相当于做4000万人民币黄金多头。
现货黄金假设:人民币升值8%,获取利润将达到4000×8%=320万。剔除500万资金换取美元的8%的损失空间和一年的资金占用利息4.14%,净收益为320-40-41=239万,收益率为23.9%左右。
现货黄金以2007年为例:在人民币升值情况下,我们在两个市场同时买入纽约期金、卖出国内的黄金,持有一年,纽约黄金价格上涨30.79%,国内黄金价格上涨22.26%。进行跨市套利就能够赚取8.53%的利润空间。如果通过黄金期货的杠杠机制,放大4倍计算。那么利润空间将会达到34.12%。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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