复苏情况乐观 现货黄金表现不佳
关键字：现货黄金走势分析
【行情回顾】
8月19日亚市早盘，国际现货黄金徘徊于1300美元下方附近，昨日继续收跌并失守千三关口。昨日地缘局势忧虑缓解，数据影响也平淡，市场重点关注美联储纪要及耶伦讲话。今日数据较昨日稍有增多，亚市时段关注澳洲联储会议纪要、欧美时段关注英国及美国7月CPI、美国7月新屋开工及营建许可两大房市数据。
【基本面分析】
近期，由于美国经济复苏表现乐观，长期来看，全球经济状况的好坏程度对黄金价格的影响更甚于地缘政治因素。进入2014年，尽管美联储QE政策逐渐退出，但作为世界经济的两大主要引擎，中美经济一直保持着平稳向好态势。
近期一系列经济数据显示，美国2014财年前10个月，财政赤字总额创2008财年以来同期新低，较2013财年减少2010亿美元，同比大幅收缩24%。7月的非农就业报告显示，美国新增非农就业人数已连续6个月超过20万，这是1997年以来首次出现。美国经济数据持续向好，市场对于美联储下半年加息的预期重燃，这给下半年黄金价格的下跌埋下伏笔。
【技术分析】
由黄金日K线图上看，布林下轨处形成了1284的强支撑，MACD金叉红色动能衰减殆尽，KDJ向下发散，RSI走平运行于低位，现在还是空头稍占优势，我们下方重点关注1284一线支撑情况。4小时线来看，虽然上破过千三关口，但并未站稳直接打压下来，布林带向下开口，MACD死叉放量绿色动能衰减，RSI拐头向上，4小时也是空头占优，但势能有所衰减，加上下方黄金具备年线和前期低位的支撑，因此建议投资者逢低做多。
日内支撑位：1297 1294 1287
日内压力位：1300 1304 1308
由于乌克兰局势似乎有所缓解，全球股市和美元走强，近几日黄金均以震荡下跌为主，昨日再收出一支阴线，目前整体趋势来看虽然属于空头市场，但是空头打压力度明显趋弱，因此我们大田环球建议投资者日内仍然逢低做多，介入位置1296，盈利目标1303.
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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