阿根廷被判违约 黄金借势上扬
关键字：现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
周三亚市早盘，现货黄金行情价格位于1288附近水平徘徊，隔夜黄金价格一度因强劲的美国7月ISM非制造业PMI刷新日内低点1282，但随后由于地缘政治因素引发避险情绪，美股大跌，金价或提振反弹1290上方。短期内黄金在1280底部的支撑下，有望出现触底反弹走势。
【基本面分析】
由于阿根廷近期出现本世纪以来的第二次主权债违约，同时该国政府拒绝与“钉子户债权人”的谈判来解决其债券危机，导致货币持续流出。另一方面，受欧盟制裁影响，近期俄罗斯企业大规模抛售美元，并买入港元，令港元面临汇率升值压力，香港金管局再度干预汇市以阻升港币。通常来说，全球货币错位往往被视为黄金上涨的利好因素。
国际互换与衍生品协会(ISDA)周一表示，阿根廷未能支付债券利息是一个信用事件，将触发10亿美元信贷违约互换(CDS)的结算。ISDA的裁决委员会针对瑞银的提问作出这一判定，之前阿根廷政府未能在7月30日支付5.39亿美元利息。这是自2012年希腊债务重组以来首次有国家触发信贷违约互换。而阿根廷违约很可能会触发黄金的避险需求。
【技术分析】
由现货黄金近日的走势上看，现货黄金4小时图隔夜最低1282，未能跌破1280创造新低，这令自1345以来的震荡下行压力有所缓解。RSI反弹靠近50，MACD继续在零轴下方附近走平。目前上方阻力仍在1295-1300，若黄金能够在本周内顺利突破1300关口，则很可能会触发一波反弹走势。
日内支撑位：1285 1280 1276
日内压力位：1288 1294 1297
从现货黄金日线图来看，黄金价格昨日先急挫后跌幅收窄，录得一根带较长上影线的小阴线，RSI相对强弱指数徘徊于50下方，MACD量能变化不大，短期内黄金上行仍然存在一定的压力，但是若1283支撑位置不出现破位，则投资者可以于此位置附近介入做多，建议介入位置1285，盈利目标1293.
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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