机构看淡现货黄金短期涨势
关键字：现货黄金走势
欧洲时段，国际现货黄金再度发力上攻1300关口，由于上攻过程中空头不断狙击，黄金在1300关口暂时陷入了震荡当中，尚未能完全站稳1300整数关口。由于在稍后事件欧元区有重要数据工业产出月率公布，市场资金暂时还存在一定的观望情绪。
由于美国逐步缩减刺激可能推高利率，这可能会对黄金ETF持有量有负面影响。事实上，黄金ETF持有量2013年下跌了28.0%，当前的持有水平处于2009年12月以来低位。有报告称，在美国和欧元区经济复苏的背景下的避险交易只能给黄金ETF投资者带来有限的兴趣，可能引起黄金ETF持有量进一步下跌。
而另一方面，美元指数保持强劲，黄金可能从当前1300美元水平下跌，短期内金价将交投于1150-1250范围。黄金被视为宏观经济不确定和法定货币贬值的对冲工具。任何美国，欧洲或者中国GDP增长低于预期的消息和任何地缘政治不确定性都可能推动金价升至1300上方。但是黄金仍然缺乏长期走强的决定性因素，因此以黄金ETF为首的机构短期内均看淡黄金的上涨。
技术分析：根据我们对伦敦金技术分析可得，由黄金日K线图上看，黄金持续对1300关口发动攻势，由于黄金现正处于三角形箱体末端当中，同时布林线喇叭口也出现持续收口迹象，因此在近期黄金很可能会出现方向性选择。而由均线系统上看，短期均线经历过经期黄金的横盘震荡之后，均线形态开始修复，KDJ再度出现金叉迹象，若黄金短期内能够站稳1300关口，有望打开上行通道。
操作建议：
做多：开仓1305 止盈1313 止损1290
做空：开仓1292 止盈1285 止损1305
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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