中国实物需求萎靡 黄金承压迹象明显
关键字：现货黄金走势
欧盘时段，国际现货黄金价格维持低位弱势。受乌克兰局势影响，欧美均表示乌克兰东部的独立公投无效，而俄罗斯也应该受到相应的经济制裁。但是，由于市场认为欧美仍缺乏实质性行动，导致市场的避险情绪有所降温，金价因此承压。
根据中国最新公布的经济数据显示，中国的货币增长速度较低，因此有市场人士推出将会影响中国消费者对黄金的购买力。
中国信贷投放持续放缓，根据央行昨日公布的4月金融数据，4月新增人民币各项贷款7747亿元。从绝对增量来看，比去年同期少增176亿元，而从增速看，4月末贷款余额同比增长13.2%，比3月末低0.5个百分点，低于市场预期。而机构多数预期，当前还是政策观望期，调整要视经济数据而定，大幅放松空间不大。
而另一方面，受到近期中国经济增速放缓和货币政策迟迟未能放松影响，中国市场对黄金的消费力有所下降。据了解，由于金银珠宝类商品销售同比大幅下降的拖累导致4月零售额大幅跳水。4月，全国50家重点大型零售企业金银珠宝类商品零售额相比上年同期大幅下降48.2%，降幅环比3月高出34.6%。零售企业的3月促销潮也影响了4月业绩。 4月，全国50家大型零售企业化妆品类商品零售额同比下降6.9%，环比上月下降了28.4%。在被调查的企业中，有超过85%的企业4月销售低于3月，且降幅超过10%的企业占比达到80%。由此可见，中国短期内消费者对贵金属类商品的消费有所下降，黄金或许会因此缺乏实物需求。
技术分析：根据我们对现货黄金走势分析，由黄金日K线图上看，黄金现在位于由下降三角形的末端位置，而且短期内受到布林线中轨的压力，上行方向阻力重重，由均线系统上看，短期均线依然呈现空头排列，长期均线则开始走平，预示短期内黄金仍然有下行压力。综合来看，黄金短期内上行力度不足，若乌克兰方面局势维持稳定，黄金承压下行的可能性较大。
操作建议：
做多：开仓1286 止盈1295 止损1274
做空：开仓1301 止盈1290 止损1310
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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