女王耶伦发话 黄金屏息以待
关键字：现货黄金走势预测
欧洲盘中，现货黄金价格继续维持高位震荡整理，虽然今早亚洲盘时段，由于乌克兰局势持续恶化，黄金出现了一波冲高走势，但是涨势仍不算大，主要是因为市场把注意力都集中在晚间的耶伦讲话当中。而今晚美联储主席耶伦的讲话，将很大程度决定金价短期内的走势，投资者需要重点关注。
由于昨日美联储理事斯坦因称：鉴于市场预期美联储会结束资产购买，美联储处于资产购买的“极有利处境”。美联储可能在沟通方面面临更多“障碍”，因所提供的前瞻指引不那么明确。长期联邦基金利率不一定在4%；中期来看可能更低。因政策的常规化，关于利率的前瞻指引将更为定性，而非定数。所以今晚美联储主席耶伦的讲话则变得尤为重要。而美联储政策预期在4月非农后偏向收紧，耶伦讲话受到投资者关注。由于极寒天气负面影响将在美国一季度GDP中得到体现，宏观经济对短线美指的提振效果减弱，并影响美联储在政策调整方向的判断。若美联储维持宽松预期，则金价有望继续得到提振。
而另一方面，欧洲经济数据超预期表现重燃多头热情，欧元在近期快速上涨，带动以黄金为首的大宗商品出现一波上涨。在上季度末，投资者对主要经济体宏观经济指标或存在反应过度，欧系后续存在一定回调修正风险。乌克兰局势仍在继续恶化，但欧洲央行决议预期以维稳为主，不排除会出现量化宽松的情况，届时大宗商品将再一次迎来上涨契机。
技术分析：
根据我们对伦敦金技术分析所得，由黄金日K线图上看，黄金今日在1315压力位置之前出现高位盘整，原因在于1315阻力位置和60日均线重合形成了较强的上攻阻力，在没有较强的方向性指引之前，多空双方仍然以观望为主。但是，笔者认为如若今晚美联储没有太过出乎意料之外的将会，金价将会出现持续上涨。由均线系统上看，黄金在近期连续上涨之后，均线呈现多头排列，5日均线和10日均线形成金叉，显示出较强的上升走势。同时，MACD在金叉之后，红柱持续放大，代表多头力量正在增强，虽然KDJ指标有所超买，但是无碍黄金的上涨势头。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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