量化宽松结束 对黄金现货价格影响无法确定
关键字：黄金现货价格
美联储将于17—18日举行议息会议，并于北京时间19日凌晨公布利率决议。作为美联储本年度最后一次议息会议，是否退出或缩减850亿美元的量化宽松政策成为市场关注焦点。此次会议有望宣布2014年美国逐步退出QE的详细时间表，或将从明年3月开始首次缩减QE规模。美联储现在正处于两难境地，这主要是因为QE的退与不退都会产生相应负面效应。不排除本次议息会议伯南克再次打太极，给QE退出都留下余地，以此淡化市场对QE退出的关注度，到真正退出时减弱其对经济的冲击。在全球流动性相对宽松的大背景下，美国肯定不会自己先退出，因为退出以后就丧失了资金优势。关键问题在于，就算美联储真的在周四凌晨宣布开始结束购债，对金银价格的影响其实也是不确定的。
理由：其一，由于美联储一直强调即便结束购债计划，也不意味着宽松政策的终结，因低利率政策还将维持很长一段时间，在此背景下，美元很难有周期性的上涨，对金价的影响并不明朗；其二，关于美联储缩减购债的预期已经炒作了一年，市场对于该消息的影响已经消化得差不多了，因此当事实出现时，影响亦难以预测。
日内关注：北京时间周四凌晨3点公布的美联储利率决定、3点公布的美联储最新经济预期、以及3点半美联储主席伯南克召开的新闻发布会。
金价预测区间1226-1266美元。
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