美联储最新动向提振黄金 预期走势看多
关键字：黄金走势
【市场回顾】
金价昨天收报1364.4，上升54.5美元，高低价为1367.2/1291.9，波幅75.3美元。
尽管美国联邦储备理事会(美联储/FED)官员此前的表态均暗示要缩减购债，但是却给了市场一个惊喜，决定继续维持850亿美元的月度购债计划。美联储在美国时间下午2点公布决议，黄金飙升4.2%。
【基本面】
联储局凌晨出乎意料宣布维持每月850亿买债数额不变，它以紧缩财政政策及按揭利率仍然高涨，令经济尚处于紧绌情况为由，决定不减少买债计划。其后又把今年经济增长预测降至2.3%，明年调低至2.9%-3.1%，并决定要更多数据显示经济增长能持续，才会调整购债计划。
美联储的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)尽管承认美国经济正在改善，而且利率也在提高，但仍按兵不动。美联储的声明明确提到了财政紧缩，而推迟缩减购债可能反映了他们担心联邦预算和债务上限争执即将再度上演。
即便如此，伯南克对于自己在今年稍早暗示的政策转变，似乎也缺乏勇气。
另外，分析师认为，黄金的升幅取决于美国信贷评级风险，而信贷评级又取决于债务上限的谈判时间。随着美国债务不断攀升，黄金价格有望长期支撑。若美联储之后缩减买债规模，可能会导致实际债券利率上升，从而刺激黄金投资需求。
【盘面分析】
伯南克强调失业率维持6.5%以上，而1-2年内预估通胀不超过2.5%，且长远美元上扬的迹象，都不会考虑加息，而多位官员都认为于2014年底前都不会提升利率，中期黄金都会受到此消息影响，可以预见一个月之后的行情会继续上扬，预期今天金价将在1348-1398行走。
【今晚数据】
初领失业救济金人数，预期34万；
现有房屋销售，预期535万；
领先经济指标，预期上升0.6%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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