金价弱势震荡 静待美联储会议记录
关键字：金价震荡、美联储会议记录
金价自在1433美元筑顶以来持续下跌，尽管周一有关萨默斯退出美联储主席竞选的消息一度打压美元跳空低开，但金价仍未能反弹，市场空头气氛浓厚。
黄金市场已进入熊市，今年跌幅已达22%，且未来形势将会变得更加糟糕。投资者正在关注美联储是否会缩减“量化宽松”规模。市场目前预期美联储只会把每月850亿美元的购债规模缩减100亿美元，而且越来越多的分析师现在猜测缩减幅度可能更小。
影响金价的因素有几方面，首先是通胀因素。通常情况下，投资者会利用黄金来对冲通胀风险。而现在的形势是，全球通胀率都处于较低水平，而且正在进一步下降。
再次则是叙利亚危机已有所减弱，至少从目前看来是这样。最后，另一场有关美国政府借债上限的争论可能会对金价造成影响。美国联邦政府将在10月中旬触及借债上限，市场很可能对此作出 反应，金价将面临下行压力。
另外，印度政府上调金饰进口税，黄金进口税不变，此举可能对金价构成一定支撑，但不会产生太大作用，因饰品仅占印度黄金进口总量的一小部分。金价短期来看，呈现疲弱走势，印度上调金饰进口税，卢比上涨，对金价有一定的支持力。但面对美联储缩减购债规模的来临，恐怕支撑的力度不大，至少短期内还未能有所体现。
技术面上分析，近期黄金在1348价位上有一定阻力，若黄金上涨，需突破1348阻力位。
预计今晚金价将在1287-1305徘徊。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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