熊傲君：ADP数据意外大好，金价形势不容乐观
关键词：现货黄金下跌，美国就业市场
导语：在白银价格周初疯狂拉涨的情况下，金价也出现了一定的回升，不过好景不长，随着美元的反弹以及白银的高位获利了结，导致黄金再次回到弱势的节奏当中。就在此时，连经济数据也发起攻势，ADP数据意外大幅好于预期，导致黄金形势目前已经到了不太乐观的局面。
散户追高白银后降温
现货白银在周二出现暴跌，因为投资者在芝商所上调保证金比例后纷纷选择高位平仓。一度推动银价冲上八年高位的购买热潮正式结束。芝商所宣布2月2日起将保证金比率提高18%，从每张契约14000美元提高到16500美元，这意味白银期货交易者必须投入更多担保才能开仓。
白银的暴跌也导致了金价的回落，因为此前白银的上涨也拉动了黄金，所以当资金大量流出贵金属市场后，黄金也失去了支撑。因此，未来金价走势的命运，其实还是要看回市场的基本面情况，如果没有太稳固的利好因素，那么黄金是很难再次迎来强劲的势头，所以重点还得看刺激计划推进以及货币政策的情况。
ADP数据表现出色
美国1月ADP就业人数实际公布17.4万，预期值5万，前值-12.3万。就业市场在新冠肺炎疫情的不利因素中继续缓慢复苏，虽然失业人数以前主要集中在中小企业，但我们现在看到大公司也受到疫情长期影响的迹象。不过，目前美国疫情依然未完全控制，所以就业市场能否持续复苏还需观察。
不管如何，小非农的意外大涨，也导致了市场对于周五的非农充满信心，所以在预期的压制下，金价进一步走弱。一旦非农数据表现利好，将可能继续下探，届时就要观察好1800关口的情况，如果确认失守，下周将打开更大的回落空间，目前市场预计新增就业人数为7万。
在二月份的金价情况仍然不太乐观，虽然一度跟随白银上涨，但是目前已经重新回到了偏弱的节奏，加上刺激计划推进不如理性，美国经济数据也正在复苏，一旦没有更多的利好消息出现，黄金短期之内恐怕还会继续以震荡回调为主。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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