黄绍山:5月货币政策纪要总结
大田环球据消息得知在北京时间5月24日(周四)凌晨2:00,美联储公布5月份货币政策会议纪要,纪要中提到美联储官员统一超额准备金率或许有小幅调整的需要,同时随着美国方面银行储备金逐渐减少,一些委员建议美联储在不久之后希望就资产负债表规模的下降等,讨论如何能使政策效益最大化,以及如何才能更好地执行政策。
美元遭受纪要打压提振黄金
随着5月货币政策会议纪要的开始,凌晨时段美元方面我们可以留意到从高位94.2位置受到纪要的打压后回撤至93.9附近位置,而黄金方面也由于美元的本次回撤,在凌晨时段从1289附近位置开始迎来一段涨幅,最高到达1295的位置上,以下图为当时美联储纪要开始后的黄金1小时图。
那么本次货币纪要主要谈及到的重要发言,为大家总结了一张图片
大田环球贵金属黄绍山认为,本次的货币政策纪要主要谈及到美国目前的通胀情况,经济增速的预期,以及未来是否加息,加息多少次的情况,从上述图中的鹰派观点中我们能够总结得到,目前美国的通胀情况即使与与其相比仍然稍稍维持在低位,但是也如预期般的出现上涨,甚至乎略微高于2%,对于这种现象,美联储认为即使目前通胀高于2%目标当中并无任何害处所出现,并且6月份加息概率基本上维持在98%~100%。
而目前美联储对于美国经济资产方面仍然处于预期范围之中,但是我们发现到,在美联储对通胀以及未来所表现出的鹰派言论,为什么美元方面反而会迎来一段回撤?我们从鸽派的观点中可以看到,美联储目前最为担心的就是特朗普所发动的美国贸易战,美国目前的贸易政策仍然对于未来的通胀,和经济活动带来一系列的风险以及不确定性。
再加上近期最近欧盟、日本、俄罗斯、印度等国家也向WTO申请增加部分商品关税的征收,从而导致本次市场焦点,分别落在了贸易战上,使本次纪要令美元受到打压,而黄金得到了提振作用。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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