一个掷飞镖选股的故事，充分反映投资知识重要性
在1973年，美国普林斯顿大学伯顿·麦基尔教授做了一个有趣实验：他让一只蒙着眼睛的猴子向《华尔街日报》的证券版投掷飞镖，由此选出要投资的股票，结果发现猴子选出的股票的表现比专家选出的股票表现更好。
这个实验在当时就困扰了很多投资者，大家都认为股市的“随机性”、“偶然性”太大，炒股就跟买彩票没两样，一时间华尔街的投资精英们口碑也备受影响。
后来为了验证“猴子投掷飞镖选股”更好的观点、同时也为了娱乐读者，在1988年《华尔街日报》专门为此开设了一个叫作《投资飞镖》的专栏。他们挑选了《华尔街日报》的四名工作人员，让他们也蒙上眼睛代替猴子投掷飞镖选股票。
另外，《投掷飞镖》专栏又从交易界邀请四位交易专家，每位也挑选一只股票，与报社工作人员分别形成两个投资组合，每个组合包含选出的各四只股票，分别考察未来一个月的优势。而后，每个月也会进行类似的重复实验，只不过每次实验都会挑选不同的交易专业人士。
这个实验总共进行了整整100次，最后“猴子飞镖”组合赢了39次，专业交易人士赢了61次。而同期道琼斯指数的六个月平均收益为6.8％，交易专业人士选的组合最后平均涨幅达到了10.9％。
但相比之下，“猴子”通过投掷飞镖选出的组合平均收益率仅为4.5％，不但低于专业交易人士，还低于市场指数的平均表现。
所以根据这个实验我们可以得出，虽然“猴子”掷镖选股也有赢得可能，但其准确性和收益率是远远低于专业人士的投资分析选择的，这也证明了投资市场虽然具有投机性，但我们也可通过提高市场分析本领取得优势，也说明了投资知重要性！
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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