巴克莱：美联储加速升息是因失业率走低
关键字：美联储加速升息
巴克莱资本在周三(3月20日)公布的报告中对凌晨的美联储决议及耶伦讲话给出了最新评述。主要内容如下：
主要观点
巴克莱资本表示，“和我们预期的一样，美联储进一步削减购债100亿美元，至550亿美元/月。其剔除前瞻性指引的做法也合乎本行预期。但是令人感到意外的是，美联储加速了开启升息周期的预期。”
该行指出，“市场预期中值显示，美联储会在2015年末升息25个基点，至1.0%；在2016年末升息至2.25%。虽然美联储称剔除前瞻性指引并非是政策倾向改变的暗示，但升息预期的加速完全吸引了市场眼球。从我们的角度来看，美联储升息节奏的加速是此次会议传出的最重要信号。”
巴克莱资本认为，美联储升息节奏加速(也就是紧缩周期加速)的主要原因是失业率的走低。
该行指出，美国失业率的预期中值均出现下降。其中，美国2014年失业率预估自6.3-6.6%降至6.1-6.3%，2015年失业率预估自5.8-6.1%降至5.6-5.9%，2016年失业率预估自5.3-5.8%降至5.2-5.6%。
巴克莱资本同时表示，美联储对GDP增速及通胀的修正均较有限，并不是其改变升息预期的原因。从中可发现，美联储在考虑利率设定方面给了失业率极大的权重。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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