中国恐陷入信贷紧缩危机 美公债殖利率下跌
关键字：信贷紧缩危机、美国公债殖利率
中国大陆首宗债务违约事件让市场担忧当地恐陷入信贷紧缩困境、进而威胁到全球的复苏趋势,这让美国10年期公债殖利率以下跌作收。
Bloomberg Bond Trader报价显示,纽约债市11日尾盘时,美国10年期公债殖利率小跌1个基点至2.77%;盘中最多一度上升至2.80%。债券价格与殖利率呈现反向走势。
彭博社、MarketWatch报导,拥有新「债券天王(King of Bonds)」封号的DoubleLine Capital执行长兼创办人Jeffrey Gundlach 11日在一场网络直播的法说会上表示,美国10年期公债殖利率可能会在今(2014)年下探2.5%,主因联准会(FED)在全球经济趋缓之际还决定减码量化宽松货币政策(QE)。他说,目前看不到资金从债市转移到股市的迹象。
上海超日太阳能(Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co.,002506.SZ)发行的「11超日债」在3月7日陷入违约困境、无法如期支付利息,成为大陆债市首宗违约事件。美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)日前警告这可能成为08年金融海啸前奏、贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)倒闭的翻版。
华尔街日报报导,CRT Capital Group LLC资深公债策略师Ian Lyngen表示,大陆首宗违约事件让投资人对全球需求感到忧心,这也冲击了原物料市场,而避险需求也涌入债市。
债市最近的交投颇为清淡。RBS Securities Inc数据显示,11日亚洲交易时段的公债交易商成交量仅达10日均量的44%,而当美国市场开始交易时成交量虽然略有回升,但仍远低于日均量。
市场交易活动降温,也反映在公债标售的需求上头。美国财政部11日标售300亿美元3年期公债时,象征买气的认购比率(bid-to-cover ratio)仅3.25倍,低于过去10次拍卖的平均值(3.29倍)以及2月份的3.42倍。
美国本次拍卖3年期公债时,间接投标者(indirect bidder,包含外国央行在内)认购了29.9%,比例低于过去10次的35%与2月份的42%。直接投标者(direct bidder,直接向财政部认购的非主要交易商)则认购了15.5%,比例低于过去10次拍卖会的平均值16%以及2月份的16.6%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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