IMF：上调全球经济展望 减码方向正确
关键字：全球经济
国际货币基金组织(IMF)21日调升2014年全球展望，虽然幅度有限，仅自去年10月预估的3.6%微幅上修0.1个百分点至3.7%，但这是近两年来IMF首度上修全球展望。IMF首席经济学家Olivier Blanchard解释背后主因是，阻碍景气复苏的阻力已大幅减缓，如政府财政，以及金融市场等不确定性降低。不过，Blanchard也强调，各区域仍有好坏之分，在复苏速度的比较上仍有明显的差距。他预期全球2015年经济成长率将再提升至3.9%。IMF看好先进国家取代新兴市场成为全球经济成长的引擎，特别是英国，经济成长预估由1.9%跳增0.5个百分点至2.4%。
美国经济成长率上修0.2个百分点至2.8%，但2015年展望则遭下修0.4个百分点至3%，理由是国会斗争与政府赤字。对于联储局(FED)的货币政策，IMF认为量化宽松(QE)减码大致上方向正确，它预期第一次升息时间将落在2015年。在欧元区展望看法上，IMF口气则较为保守，尽管经济成长率上修至1%，但失业率居高不下、内需不足却使得欧元区面临新的通缩风险威胁，它建议欧洲央行(ECB)可以再多用点力刺激经济成长。IMF调升大陆经济成长预估0.3个百分点至7.5%，日本0.4个百分点至1.7%。另外，IMF还大砍俄罗斯经济展望1个百分点至2%，巴西0.2个百分点至2.3%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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