美联储减码 新兴市场经济严峻
关键字：美联储缩减购债规模、新兴市场
进入2013年，不同新兴市场经济体货币政策前景各异，大部分新兴经济体还有进一步放松货币政策的空间；部分通胀反弹势头迅猛的经济体则陆续出现货币政策从宽松向收紧的趋势。
同时由于金融监管制度不完善，新兴经济体金融体系十分脆弱：经常项目逆差和财政赤字上升不仅导致债务融资难度加大，主权债务违约风险上升，而且银行系统风险不断暴露。2013年上半年，印度银行业不良贷款率已上涨至3.92%，创近五年来的新高。俄罗斯、南非银行业前景也遭标准普尔、穆迪等国际评级机构预警。
美联储多次释放改变货币政策的信号对新兴国家产生了严峻挑战，使得新兴经济体不得不推出应对政策。当外资流入开始逆转，这些国家的货币大幅贬值。为遏制外资流出，除干预外汇外，这些国家还不得不提高利率。2013年以来，印尼、巴西和印度等国多次加息。然而，这些措施在抑制投资和消费需求的同时，也使经济增速进一步下滑。
同时，新兴经济体国内货币政策与外汇政策的衔接上也存在问题。国内国际清算银行的报告表示，“在进行外汇干预的过程中，很多央行面临的一个尴尬问题是外汇市场上的政策可能会导致国内货币政策传导机制受阻，进而引发国内货币政策失效或弱化。”因此，新兴市场如何保证在干预外汇市场时与国内货币政策保持一致是一个难题。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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