葛洛斯：美国GDP成长率缩减0.6% 政治僵局将会重演
关键字：美国GDP
虽然美国政治僵局终于破冰，有「债券天王」美誉的全球最大债券基金操盘手葛洛斯(Bill Gross)却认为，类似的戏码恐怕会重复上演。葛洛斯16日在接受CNBC节目「Street Signs」专访时表示，华盛顿政府的失能状态似乎已成痼疾，而美债的波动也终将影响到公债长期投资人。
葛洛斯并警告，美国一旦发生类似的政治僵局，美国公债殖利率就会上升，而本次危机已让殖利率增加了5-10个基点。他说，对15兆美元的公债而言，殖利率倘若上升5-10个基点，政府一年就得额外支付高达150亿美元的利息。
那么，华盛顿最近的政治闹剧是否会影响联储局(FED)减码量化宽松货币政策(QE)的时间点？葛洛斯认为，美国的国内生产毛额(GDP)可能会因为本次预算争议而萎缩2-3成，而FED在下次的货币政策会议上也许会采取观望态度。
他并指出，FED下任主席叶伦(Janet Yellen)应该会在「前瞻性指引」(forward guidance)中宣示，她计划将0-0.25%的联邦基金利率维持到2015年底、甚至是2016年，而这项做法可望让殖利率曲线前端持稳、这也是PIMCO投资的方向。
MarketWatch报导，根据债信机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor`s)16日的估算，美国政府本次部份停摆已让第4季GDP成长率缩减至少0.6个百分点、相当于24亿美元。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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