就业市场改善 NYMEX油价上涨
关键字：国际原油走势
纽约商业交易所(NYMEX)11月原油期货9月26日上涨0.37美元或0.4%成为每桶103.03美元,受上周初领失业救济金低于预期的提振,欧洲ICE期货交易所(ICE Futures Europe)11月布兰特原油上涨0.89美元或0.8%成为每桶109.21美元。两者的价差由前一交易日的5.66美元扩大至6.18美元。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)报告称,受到地缘政治风险降温的影响,西德州原油价格预计将从第三季的平均每桶106.07美元,下跌至105美元;但该行预计金价将从本季的平均每盎司1,330美元上涨至第四季的平均每盎司1,350美元。
德银上调2013年布兰特原油价格预估至109美元/桶,因有关叙利亚和利比亚的地缘政治风险推高了本季的油价。不过,德银下调2014年布兰特原油均价的预估至106.25美元/桶,下调幅度0.7%,因原油供给和政治风险有所减退。该行也预计2013年和2014年西德州原油均价分别为99.88美元/桶和98.75美元/桶。德银将今年平均金价预估上调0.3%至每盎司1,432美元。
麦肯锡在报告中指出,生产商现在必须深入更偏远的区域采掘原料,还需要更为精密的技术来提炼,才能应付日益庞大的需求。举例来说,海底油田就需要更为复杂的设备来采集,而许多矿场也都位于政治不稳定的区域。也就是说,虽然原物料并无立即性的短缺情况,但由于厂商的边际成本普遍上升,因此价格迟迟无法压低。
截至9月20日当周,美国炼油厂日均原油加工量较前周减少50万桶至1,560万桶,炼油厂产能利用率较前周92.5%下滑至90.3%。汽油日均产量较前周930万桶减少至900万桶,蒸馏油日均产量较前周510万桶减少至480万桶。上周原油日均进口量为790万桶,较前周增加34.6万桶;过去4周的原油进口日均量为790万桶。上周汽油日均进口量为46万桶,蒸馏油日均进口量为13.7万桶。
作为需求的指针,美国过去4周日均油品供应量为1,910万桶,较去年同期增加3.8%。其中,汽油日均供应量为890万桶,蒸馏油日均供应量年增7.8%至370万桶,航空燃油日均供应量年增2%至150万桶。截至9月20日当周,美国原油日均产量为777.7万桶,前周为774.5万桶,去年同期为782.7万桶;过去四周原油日均产量为774.3万桶,去年同期为595万桶。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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