哈佛学者:FOMC收伞决策与前瞻指引相互矛盾
关键字：FOMC
旧金山联邦准备银行(FED)总裁John Williams今年5月曾坦承,货币政策决策者不确定美国经济未来的动向、也不清楚政策行动会产生什么样的效果,尤其是FED目前所实行的是非传统政策工具。可惜的是,Williams不是FED主席,他的诚实见解也不是联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)的主流意见。
曾担任美国共和党总统参选人罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)经济顾问的哈佛大学经济学教授Martin Feldstein日前在英国金融时报发表专文,奉劝FOMC坦承货币政策已经变不出新把戏、自10月会议起开始让债券投资组合规模稳定在一定水平,不要继续再扩张下去。他说,2010、2011年的量化宽松政策(QE)的确有达到刺激需求的效果,但现在的策略对刺激景气、就业帮助有限,只会扭曲民众以及企业的投资决策。 Feldstein指出,FED主席柏南克说现在不缩减买债规模是因为经济数据还不够好;如果FED真的是那么重视数据,那么为何它又要提出未来数年的前瞻指引?难道,这些指引都是铁板一块、不用跟着经济情势演变而调整吗?
FOMC缩减买债规模真的完全只看美国经济数据吗?FOMC 9月18日新闻稿第四段最后一行提到,资产购买计划不会是一成不变的,委员会将依据经济展望以及买债计划的利弊得失来决定每个月的买债金额。柏南克1月14日在密西根大学发表演说时也指出,FED将会持续评估债券购买计划对经济的效益。
诚如Williams所说的,货币政策决策者不确定经济未来的动向、也不清楚政策行动会产生什么样的效果。所以,FOMC未来可能采取的任何行动都预留伏笔。也就是说,要预测FED未来的动向,仔细分析FOMC前瞻指引跟丢铜板的准确度可能是差不多的。FED未来可以主观地以QE效应降低为由宣布收伞。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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